2030 : The Year When Homes Become Affordable
Recent analysis from Redfin has made headlines by suggesting that U.S. housing affordability may not return to pre-pandemic “normal” levels until 2030. Their model assumes mortgage rates easing toward 5.5%, steady income growth, and slower home-price appreciation. Even then, many large metros—including Philadelphia—are projected not to reach 2018 affordability levels by the end of this decade.
That raises an important question for buyers and sellers in the Philadelphia metro area: should you wait until 2030 to make a move?
Why Affordability May Not Snap Back
The Redfin model doesn’t predict a sudden crash in home prices. Instead, it points to a slow recalibration: incomes rising, rates gradually easing, and price growth moderating. In our local market, demand continues to outpace supply. Inventory remains tight in Montgomery County, Bucks County, and across Philadelphia. That puts a floor under pricing, even if affordability metrics remain stretched.
In plain English: while payments may feel easier years from now, don’t expect 2018 prices to come back.
The Risk of Waiting
Some buyers are tempted to sit on the sidelines in hopes of a “better” market. But waiting comes with real risks:
Equity lost: Every year of waiting is a year of missed equity growth. Homeowners who bought in 2020 have already gained substantial wealth despite higher rates today.
Rising incomes ≠ falling prices: As wages climb, sellers can hold firm on pricing. That means affordability may improve only through paychecks—not through lower home values.
Opportunity cost: While you wait, rent continues to rise. A mortgage payment builds your wealth; rent builds your landlord’s.
Why Buying Now Can Still Make Sense
Rates are temporary: With refinancing options, today’s mortgage rate doesn’t have to be your forever rate. You can buy the home now and refinance when rates improve.
Creative financing: Seller credits, rate buydowns, and adjustable-rate products can help make monthly payments more manageable today.
Lifestyle value: Real estate isn’t just a financial move—it’s about having the right home for your family’s needs, schools, and community now.
The Local Takeaway
Here in the Philadelphia metro, affordability is unlikely to “return to normal” by 2030. That doesn’t mean the dream of homeownership should be delayed. Instead, it means buyers and sellers need a clear strategy:
Buyers: focus on payment solutions (credits, buydowns, refinancing options) rather than waiting for perfect market conditions.
Sellers: present homes as move-in ready and highlight features that save buyers money over time (energy efficiency, low-maintenance updates).
Bottom Line
Waiting until the next decade could mean paying more for the same house—and missing out on years of equity growth. If you’re ready to make a move, the right strategy can make buying today both affordable and financially smart.
Want to talk about what these market shifts mean for you? The Betz Team is here to guide you through the numbers, the strategy, and the steps to make the market work in your favor—today.
